By Hiran H.Senewiratne
The country will have positive growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year and as a result the projected negative growth this year will be closer to zero, Central Bank Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
‘We have decided to relax monetary policies and reduce policy interest rates, aiming to gradually ease inflationary pressures and aid in the recovery of the economy. We hope to bring inflation down to a single digit by the end of July, Dr Weerasinghe said at the CBSL’s monetary policy review meeting held at the Central Bank auditorium yesterday.
Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Faster than expected deceleration of inflation and the resulting benign inflation outlook, are some of the factors which contributed to the relaxing monetary policy stance.
‘Inflation is projected to decelerate notably in the period ahead, reaching single digit levels earlier than expected. Headline inflation is forecast to reach single digit levels in early Q3-2023 and stabilize around mid-single digit levels over the medium term.
‘Accordingly, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on May 31, 2023, decided to reduce the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 250 basis points to 13.00 percent and 14.00 percent, respectively.
‘The commencing of such monetary easing is expected to provide an impetus to the economy to rebound from the historic contraction of activity witnessed in 2022, while easing pressures in the financial markets.
‘The external sector, which underwent an unprecedented setback in 2022, begins to demonstrate an improved performance. The downward adjustment in market interest rates will accelerate in line with the envisaged single digit inflation, thereby supporting credit to the private sector and softening the pressures in the financial sector.
‘Faster deceleration of inflation and lower probability of excessive demand pressures during the economic rebound phase creates space for a gradual policy relaxation in the period ahead.
‘The continuation of the IMF-EFF supported program, further financial assistance from international development partners, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank, and renewed investor appetite, coupled with the advances in the debt restructuring process, are expected to ease the BOP constraint significantly in the period ahead, supporting the recovery in domestic economic activity.’